中文摘要：

本文采用Weymark指数法估计了1994年来我国面临的外汇市场压力和央行外汇干预指数,实证结果显示1994年来人民币一直面临着升值压力,样本期间中央银行平均干预指数为0.97,说明我国央行实行的是强势干预政策以保持人民币汇率的稳定。利用人民币外汇市场压力指数对我国潜在货币危机的研究表明,2005年人民币汇率改革之后,人民币面临的外汇市场压力过度了,存在货币危机的可能性。

英文摘要：

In this paper,Weymark index is used to estimate exchange market pressure and exchange intervention index of RMB since 1994.The empirical results show that RMB has been faced with appreciation pressure since 1994,and the average intervention index of China＇s central bank is 0.97,indicating that central bank implemented strong intervention to keep RMB exchange rate stable.Using RMB exchange market pressure index to identify potential currency crisis,the research shows that since the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in 2005,RMB has been faced with excessive exchange market pressures,and the possibility of currency crisis existed.