中文摘要：

提出了一种基于马尔可夫链调度操作流程风险评估及优选方法。分析了影响调度操作风险水平的两类主要因素(各步操作结果、设备故障)的特点,并利用分层方法将二者解耦处理:外层利用马尔可夫链模拟调度操作过程中系统拓扑的变化,并计算各环节对应系统拓扑的概率分布;内层利用状态枚举法计算各系统拓扑对应风险指标,并按外层所得概率分布加权求和,得到各操作环节及整体操作流程的风险指标,基于所得指标,可量化分析不同调度操作流程风险差异。该方法能够快速准确计算调度操作风险指标,为调度工作人员优选操作流程提供指标支持。测试系统及实际系统算例验证了所述方法的正确性、高效性和实用性。

英文摘要：

A Markov chain-based scheduling operations hierarchical risk assessment method is proposed.The characteristics of two major influencing factors of scheduling operations,which are operation result of each step and facility failures,are analyzed and decoupled with the hierarchical method.In the external layer,Markov chain is used to simulate the evaluation of system topologies during scheduling operations and achieve their probability distributions.In the internal layer,the state enumeration method is used to calculate risk indices of each system topology.By calculating the weighted sum of all system topologies according to the probability distribution of each operation step,final indices of scheduling operations will be obtained.The proposed approach is able to assess risk indices of scheduling operation efficiently and accurately,and provide index support for operators to optimize scheduling operations.Case studies based on a modified IEEE reliability test system and a practical system demonstrate the validity,effectiveness and utility value of the proposed approach.