中文摘要：

基于非线性控制理论,建立生产商、分销商和零售商在内的三阶供应链动态订货模型,使用混沌理论的李雅普诺夫指数度量突发需求扩散产生的订货量、库存量和缺货量不确定性。通过仿真软件Simulink比较了突发需求情景下,采用APIOBPCS订货策略和OUT订货策略时的系统不确定性变化。研究发现：在降低突发需求产生的库存量、订货量和缺货量不确定性方面,APIOBPCS订货策略效果优于OUT订货模型;采用APIOBPCS订货模型时,预测周期越长,订货周期越短,供应链系统不确定性越小。

英文摘要：

Based on nonlinear control theory,the dynamic order model of three levels with manufacturer,distributor and retailer was proposed.Uncertainty of order,inventory and stock shortage caused by demand emergency were analyzed by using Lyapunov exponent as measurement based on chaos theory.The uncertainties with APIOBPCS and OUT order policy were compared by simulating with Simulink.Some findings are revealed：APIOBPCS order policy performs better than OUT order policy on reducing uncertainties of inventory,order and stock shortage caused by demand emergency.The uncertainty of system can be reduced when longer forecasting data period and shorted order decision period is chosen.