中文摘要：

岩溶泉流量时间序列蕴含大量岩溶含水系统水动力特征信息，可为岩溶地下水资源量的确定及水文干旱分析提供重要途径。本研究基于长系列泉流量时间序列，推求流量理论频率曲线，通过拟合的理论频率曲线获得后寨岩溶典型小流域在95％、80％、50％、20％保证率下的岩溶地下水流量为0．25m3／s、0．23m3／s、0．39m3／s、0．57m3／s。在概率为80％的流量截取水平下，获得岩溶含水系统1991～1997的中最严重干旱为1993年。干旱历时为195d，缺水量为2．9×10^6m^3。泉流量时间序列的理论频率分析能很好的应用于岩溶含水系统地下水资源计算和干旱特征分析，为岩溶含水系统水资源的合理优化配置提供依据。

英文摘要：

Karstic spring discharge time series implied lots of information about hydrodynamic characteristics in Karstic water system, which can provide a way for Karstic water resources estimation and drought analysis. In this paper, he probability of exceeding curve was calculated based on the long spring discharge time series. According the theoretical probability of exceeding curve, the permitting discharge rates are 0.25m3/s, 0.23m3/s, 0.39m3/s and 0.57m3/s corresponding respectively to 95%, 80%, 50% and 20% probability. Under the 80% probability cutting level, the most drought year is 1993 with the 135 drought days and 2.9x106m3 volume of water shortage. The theoretical probability analysis for the spring discharge is useful for the estimate Karstic water resources and drought characteristics, providing evidence for the reasonable water resources optimization.