中文摘要：

在项目工期风险管理领域,大多基于活动工期的不确定性进行研究,对由组织失效引起的工期风险问题较少关注。在对研发项目组织网络和任务网络分析的基础上,提出了研发项目的组织-任务网络模型。借鉴相继故障理论中的耦合映象格子,构建了以组织失效为风险因素的研发项目工期风险分析模型,并对该理论模型进行了数值仿真。结果表明,施加给组织节点的外部扰动达到某一数值即关键扰动阈值时可显著导致项目工期延误,该关键扰动阈值与组织间的耦合度呈负相关,与组织网络的平均度呈正相关,度大袭击比随机袭击和度小袭击更易于导致项目工期风险的发生,且造成工期延误的程度随着组织间耦合度的减小而愈加显著。研究结论为网络化背景下研发项目工期风险管理提供了新的视角。

英文摘要：

In modern society,facing the complexity of technology,scarcity of resources and dynamic of market demand,it has become an effective mode for RD project to form a network composed of many organizations.However,duration delay has been a common phenomenon in RD project due to the great amount of sub-organizations and sub-tasks,high complexity of technology and uncertainty of external environment.Research studies also show that schedule problem has been one major cause of many risk events,and become a big challenge faced by managers.Therefore,it has become essential to analyze the schedule risk of RD project under the context of networking RD.According to literature review,many studies focus on analyzing the project schedule risk from the view of uncertain task by adopting Gannt Chart,Work Breakdown Structure,Critical Path Method,Program Evaluation and Review Technology,Graphical Evaluation and Review Technology,etc.However,few studies focus on the schedule risk from the organization failure that implements the project task.In fact,project organization is an important factor of schedule risk by allocating materials,human and budget that are necessary for project tasks.In this sense,the failure of a few organizations in RD project will cause many neighboring organizations to fail,and then influences the durations of some tasks that are implemented by those organizations.Therefore,this paper adopts the coupled map lattice model to describe how the failure of some organization influences the duration of RD project,which can provide a new insight into managing the schedule risk of RD project under the context of networking.Firstly,this paper establishes the organization-task network model of RD project,where organization network has the characteristics of scale-free network based on referring to the conclusions from many scholars,and task network includes three modes of sequence relationships of tasks,finally the execution relationships from organizations to tasks is established based on the organization network and task