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上海1873年至2007年汛期水资源的气候变化特征
  • 期刊名称:资源科学,2009(5): 714-721
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S162[农业科学—农业气象学;农业科学—农业基础科学]
  • 作者机构:[1]上海市气候中心,上海200030, [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081, [3]南京信息工程大学,南京210044, [4]上海台风研究所,上海200030
  • 相关基金:国家自然科学基金(编号:40875056);中国气象局气候变化专项:“华东南降水强度、极端降水对全球变暖的响应”,“华东区域气候变化评估报告”;上海市科委专项:“上海城市化导致的气候变化及其与能源消费的相互影响”.
  • 相关项目:我国副热带地区夏季风降水事件时空频率的分布特征及变化
中文摘要:

采用上海徐家汇站1873年~2007年的逐月、逐日降水资料及1961年~2007年上海地区11个站的逐月降水资料,从降水总量、降水总日数、不同等级降水事件、持续性降水以及时空分布的长期变化等方面,分析了上海134年以来汛期水资源的变化特征:研究结果表明:①134年来上海汛期的降水总量、降水总日数、暴雨频数、持续性降水频次存在明显的年代际变化,但长期变化趋势不甚明显;②1980s以来,上海汛期的降水目数减少,大雨以上的降水强度增强,汛期的降水时段也更为集中,集中降水期有提早结束的趋势,持续无雨事件的发生频次存在增多趋势;③1980s以来,上海地区汛期降水总量呈现出城郊空间不一致的变化特征,中心城区汛期降水呈增多趋势,郊区则呈减少趋势。

英文摘要:

Climate change characterized by global warming exerts great influences on asymmetric distribution of water resource variation. Atmospheric water vapor will strengthen with the augment of surface evaporation induced by increase in surface temperature, which may favor precipitation. On the other hand, aggravation of surface evaporation makes it prone to drought. Thus the probability of asymmetric distribution of rainfall may increase. To further understand the close relations between long-term change of local water resource and climate warming based on continuous meteorological record, we used observational data of monthly and daily rainfall during 1873-2007 in Shanghai (the first consecutive precipitation record in China) and monthly rainfall of its suburbs during 1960-2007. Influential features of climate change upon rainfall source in Shanghai during rainy seasons of more than 130 years are investigated from different angles including total rainfall amount, total number of rainfall days, different levels of precipitation events, continuous precipitation and temporal/spatial distribution of rainfall. Results suggest that total rainfall amount, rainfall day's number, rainstorm frequency, continuous precipitation events exhibit distinct decadal change other than long-term trend during rainy seasons of the investigated more than 130 years. But things have changed since 1980s. After 1980s, number of rainfall days showed a decreasing trend, while rainfall intensity presented a rising tendancy, especially for those with daily rainfall of above 25mm. Rainy period has been more concentrative since 1980s, and concentrative rainy period tend to end early. Meanwhile, consistent droughts are tending to multiply. As far as long-term change of spatial distribution of rainfall amount in rainy seasons Variation of rainfall amount in rainy season pattern of rainfall over Shanghai is concerned, over Shanghai has changed during 1960-2007. exhibits symmetric trend despite of different amplitudes of 11 observational stations ov

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