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中文摘要：
研究采动效应下管道系统的变形稳定性问题对预防巷道突水有重要意义．以管道导通突水的地质模型和力学模型为基础建立了势能突变理论模型，给出了失稳的判据和确定临界位移的方法，讨论了其适用条件，并发现“临界位移值”与剪切带的几何特征、力学特性和管道内物质自重相关．随着开挖不断接近潜在导水管道，管道壁剪切带附近应力不断集中，相当于对管道及周围介质组成的系统所进行的一个不断加载过程，当到达临界条件时，系统发生失稳．管道导通突水的物理本质就是在加载过程中，随着应变不断积累到一定程度，管道进入失稳破坏阶段，导致系统物理力学性质的变化．
英文摘要：
It is very important to analyze the strain stability for pipeline conduction of rock mass during mining, which often caused the water inrush. A cusp catastrophe model was established based on the geological and mechanical characteristics of the pipeline conduction, the sufficient condition and the critical sliding displacement leading to instability were presented by analyzing this catastrophe model, and the service condition was discussed. It was found that the critical sliding displacement lies on the geometrical and mechanical characters of the slide zone and the weight of the pipeline mass. With the mining, the stress of shear zone is concentrated, which is a loading process to the system composted by pipeline material and surrounding medium. When up to the critical condition, system failure occurs. The pipeline conduction essence is change of physical and mechanical properties for the system during the loading, which is resulted by the excavation ,when the stress accumulated（ caused by the stress concentration＇~ tn a ~riti~al ~nnt~nt
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