2005年人民币汇率制度改革以来,人民币升值压力和预期始终没有消除,造成我国宏观经济困境。根据巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应,随着我国经济的快速追赶,人民币实际汇率有长期升值趋势,而当我国可贸易品部门的单位劳动成本相对下降,这一趋势就通过名义汇率升值压力体现。巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应提示我们可以通过一般物价水平调整缓解升值压力,即采用温和的结构性通胀策略降低升值预期。这对于稳定我国宏观经济,消除外汇储备泡沫,转变经济结构具有积极作用。
Since the reform of RMB exchange rate system in 2005, the expected pressure of RMB appreciation has not been eliminated,which resulted in the difficulties in China's macro-economy. According to the Balassa-Sam- uelson effect,with the rapid economic catch-up, the real exchange rate of RMB will increase for a long time. When the unit labor cost of Chinese trade departments declines, this trend is reflected by the nominal exchange rate appreciation pressure. Balassa-Samuelson effect shows that we could adjust the general prices to relieve the appreciation pressure, which means adopting a moderate structural inflation strategy to reduce expected apprecia- tion. So it is of great importance for stabilizing our macro-economy, eliminating foreign exchange reserve bubble and transforming economic structure.