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中文摘要：
【目的】以1981年为界,把从20世纪50年代到2007年划分为两个时段,对比分析1950s—1980年和1981—2007年热带作物安全种植北界的地理位移以及北界位移后界限变化敏感区域的寒害风险。【方法】利用中国种植制度分区标准和农业气候指标,对比分析两个时段热带作物种植北界的演变特征,并采用ArcGIS绘制了热带作物种植北界地理位移图;利用综合寒害指数对气候变暖背景下热带作物安全种植北界位移后的敏感区域进行寒害风险评估。【结果】与1950s—1980年相比,1981—2007年在80%气候保证率下中国热带作物安全种植北界北移了0.86个纬度,且年代际变化显著;20世纪90年代和时段2000—2007年,北界的北移速率每年分别达0.03和0.06个纬度;在80%气候保证率下,热带作物安全种植北界北移后敏感区域的寒害风险比非敏感区域要高出3.0倍,而重度以上寒害风险比非敏感区域要高出3.5倍。【结论】在全球气候变暖背景下,中国热带作物安全种植北界发生了明显北移,且北移速率呈加快趋势;在热带作物安全种植北界地理位移后的敏感区域,寒害风险增加。
英文摘要：
【Objective】 The period from 1950s to 2007 was divided into two stages,i.e.,1950s-1980 and 1981-2007,then the geographical shift of northern limit for tropical crops and the possible risk of cold damage in the cold-sensitive areas after the shift were analyzed and compared.【 Method 】 Using the standard of China farming system regional planning and some agro-meteorological indicators,the geographical shift of safe northern limit were compared and analyzed and the change map were draw by ArcGIS.Using the synthesized index of cold damage,the risks of cold damage in sensitive area of planting tropical crops were evaluated.【Result】 Compared with the results during the period from 1950s to 1980,in the 80% climate guarantee rate,the safe northern limit moved northward by 0.86 latitude during the period from 1981 to 2007.Its interdecadal change was obvious,and the respective annual rating of moving northward was 0.03 and 0.06 latitude during the 1990s and the period 2000-2007.In the 80% climate guarantee rate,the risk of cold damage in sensitive area of planting tropical crops reached 3.0 times higher than the non-sensitive area,especially the risk caused by severe or very severe cold damage reached 3.5 times.【Conclusion】 The safe Northern limit has shown an obvious northward moving under climate warming and the rate of northward moving shows an accelerated trend.The risk of cold damage is increased in the moving sensitive region of the safe northern limit.
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