中文摘要：

急诊室的病人到达率是随时间动态变化而非恒定的，因此急诊室在病人到达的高峰时刻会出现病人拥挤、等待时间过长等现象，而在病人达到率低的时期内医生的工作时间利用率又相对较低。设计针对病人时变到达率的人员排班计划，能够缓解病人等待时间长、医生工作时间利用率低等问题。针对上述实际问题，首先提出了一种可以估计动态需求系统中顾客等待时间的方法，该方法利用 M／M／c 排队论理论对病人的等待时间加以近似表达。基于此方法构造了急诊室医生排班的混合整数规划模型并加以求解，数值仿真试验显示得到的结果明显优于目前医院实际的医生排班方案。

英文摘要：

Significant variation in patient arrival rate is a key feature of emergency department （ED）and a main cause of the paradox between congestion in rush hours and resource redundancy in less busy hours.Appropriate personnel scheduling can help to relief this phenomenon.In this paper,we develop a mix integer programming model for daily personnel scheduling for EDs with non-stationary patient arrival over time.The goal is to minimize the total expected waiting time which is estimated by a combination of steady-state analysis of M/M/c queues and inventory-like flow balance equations.We then develop an improved estimation method and analyze the new model based on it.Numerical experiments and simulations are performed to validate the proposed models.