中文摘要：

以SCI-E收录数据库论文为样本的科学计量指标统计分析和灰色预测显示,在1995—2005年的11 a中,中国干旱区研究各项科学计量指标上升趋势十分显著,未来仍将继续保持大幅度的增长.中国干旱区研究的核心学科群呈现学科构成相对稳固,产出力变化较大的特征.由论文的引证指标揭示的学术影响力水平与国际同行相比略有差距,但远高于我国其它学科领域.

英文摘要：

Using gray theory, the scientometrical indexes based on the articles abstracted from Science Citation Index Expanded （SCI-E） database on the arid land research by Chinese authors were analyzed and a gray model was built to predict the status and tendency of arid land research in China. Results show that the various scientometrical indexes have increased obviously over the last eleven years and will keep the strong growing tendency in the following years （2006-2008）. A series of core supporting disciplines with comparatively firm structure has formed, of which the article yield is not stable yet. Their academic away, measured by article citation indexes, is a little lower than that of international companions, and is much higher than that of the other fields of domestic sciences.