中文摘要：

以概率论为工具，利用飞行速度偏差对飞机纵向位置误差的影响分析，研究飞机速度分布情况，建立纵向安全间隔的概率模型。通过仿真算例和分析讨论，得到了有关时间、初始间隔时间、飞机速度均方差等影响飞机之间发生危险情况概率的定量分析结果，结论可以作为确定合理的航空器间空中交通管制纵向间隔的决策参考。

英文摘要：

With the analysis result of the effect of the airspeed deviation on the longitudinal position error of aircraft, a probabilistic model of airborne longitudinal separation minima is established using probabilistic theory. Some quantitative results are derived froms imulation and in- depth analysis on those affecting the probability of the occurrence of conflict between aircraft, such as time, initial separation time, and average square divergence of airspeed. The conclusion of this article can be used as the decision reference in the process of finding reasonable airborne longitudinal separation minima for air traffic control.