中文摘要：

在构建塔里木河干流区人口-耕地系统及其生产能力一般影响因素的基础上,通过相关分析判断其主要影响因素,通过回归模型分析驱动因子和主导因子。分析认为：塔河干流区的人口和耕地主要集中在上游,但下游增加比较快;整个干流区和上游的阿拉尔市和沙雅县的人口-耕地系统生产能力属于技术依赖型系统;上游的库车县、中游的轮台县、下游的尉犁县则属于比较粗放的资源密集型系统,其中前两个是人口资源密集型,后者属于耕地资源密集型。粗放生产方式是人口、耕地增加过快及生态环境压力增加的主要原因。因此,提高农业技术投入,转化生产方式,是干流区人口-耕地系统可持续发展的根本。

英文摘要：

Population-cultivated land system of Tarim mainstream and its production influence factors were shown main factors were analyzed by Pearson Correlation Analysis,and drive factor and key factor were analyzed by Regression Analysis.Researches showed that population and cultivated land were located mainly in the upper reaches of Tarim river;Population-cultivated land system of the whole Tarim mainstream,Alaer and Shaya counties in the upper reach of Tarim river were technology intense system,county of Luntai in the middle of Tarim mainstream and county Yuli in the lower reach of of Tarim mainstream were resources intense system.The later two were extensive productive system,which made population and cultivated land increased fast and made a leavy stress on environment.As a result,inputting agriculture technology and turning production mode were the key to the sustainable development of population-cultivated land system in Tarim mainstream Area.