中文摘要：

集对分析是处理不确定性问题的理论，在一个系统中确定性与不确定性相互联系、影响、制约，并在一定条件下相互转化，用联系度及其数学表达式统一描述系统的各种不确定性，由此实现系统的评价和决策。以黄河、长江两大河流径流资料为例，通过集对分析方法，建立了评价区域径流变化程度的新模型，表明该方法在水文水资源中具有广阔的应用前景。

英文摘要：

Set pair analysis （SPA） is a theory for treatment of indeterminate problems. In a certain system, the indeterminateness and determinateness are interrelated and interacted with each other, and sometimes they can interconvert under certain condition. In this paper, the connection degree and its mathematic formula were used for describing various indeterminateness of the system, and thus the assessment of and decision-making for the system were realized. As a ease study, a new model for evaluation of regional runoff variation was developed by use of SPA based on the runoff data of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River, and it is verified that the method is of wide scope of application in hydrology and water resources.