中文摘要：

研究长期施肥对双季稻产量变化趋势、稳定性和可持续性的影响。采用线性回归、稳定性方差和可持续性指数等方法对长期施肥定位试验获取的双季稻产量数据进行分析。结果表明：（1）与偏施化肥处理相比，均衡施NPK化肥处理提高了双季稻产量、产量稳定性和可持续性，在等氮量条件下配施30%、50%和70%有机肥较NPK处理进一步提高产量6.15%、3.88%和7.75%，稳定性25.91%、59.78%和29.31%，配施30%有机肥较NPK处理提高可持续指数8.57%；（2）处理间整体表现出初始产量越高，产量的年变化量越小。施NK处理产量随时间呈下降趋势，其他处理均为上升趋势，其中不施肥和施PK处理变化显著，年变化量最大，分别为108.0和142.3 kg hm-2a-1，NPK处理最小，为23.74 kg hm-2a-1，有机无机肥配施处理间表现为随有机肥配施比例增加而产量年变化量显著增大的变化趋势。综上可见，有机无机肥配施有利于双季稻高产稳产，可有效维持系统可持续性，以70%化肥配施30%有机肥效果最佳。

英文摘要：

Effects of long-term fertilization on yield variation trend, yield stability and sustainability of a double cropping rice system were studied through a 25-year long-term fertilization field experiment in Nanchang, China, of which yield data were analyzed using the linear regression, stability variance and sustainable yield index methods. The field experiment, established in 1984, was designed to have 8 treatments, that is, Treatment CK （ a early rice--late rice rotation without fertilizer） , Treatment PK （ N deficiency ） , Treatment NP （K deficiency ） , Treatment NK （P deficiency ） , Treatment NPK （balanced chemical fertilizer application） , Treatment 70F＋30M （70% chemical fertilizers plus 30% organic manure） , Treatment 50F＋50M （50% chemical fertilizers plus 50% organic manure） , and Treatment 30F＋70M （30% chemical fertilizers plus 70% organic manure） , and all the treatments, except CK, were the same in N nutrient supply. Results show that Treatment NPK improved yield, yield stability and sustainability of the double rice cropping system, as compared with Treatments NP, NK and PK. However, Treatments 70F＋30M, 50F＋50M and 30F＋70M further raised the yield by 6.15%, 3.88% and 7.75% and the yield stability by 25.91%, 59.78% and 29.31%, respectively, and Treatment 70F＋30M improved the sustainable yield index by 8.57%. Besides in all the treatments as a whole, the higher the initial yield, the lower, the annual variation of the yield, and all showed an increasing trend, except for Treatment NK declining in yield with each passing year. Treatments CK and NK fluctuated the most sharply in yield, reaching 107.95 and 142.30 kg hm-2 a-l, respectively, Treatment NPK did the least, reaching 23.74 kg hm-2 a-1 only. However, In OM-involved treatments, the fluctuation in annual yield grew obviously bigger with the rising ratio of F/M. To sum up, Combined application of chemical fertilizers with manure is helpful to obtaining high and stable yields and keeping the double rice croppi