为推动长三角都市带人口稳定扩容,寻求提高长三角地区资源环境支撑能力的途径。基于国外已经成熟的大都市带,认为产业集聚规模、资源支撑条件、环境承受能力是影响大都市带人口容量的主要因素。根据预测,长三角都市带未来的人口规模为1.07亿~1.17亿。通过对支撑长三角都市带经济-人口容量的资源环境要素分析,认为扩大长三角地区的人口容量,关键在于提高长三角地区资源环境的支撑能力,认为未来经济发展所需各类用地保障程度的高低、战略性矿产资源供给能力的强弱以及区域环境容量的大小是影响长三角都市带人口容量大小的关键因素。建议在国家层面通过土地政策的调整提高长三角大都市带各类功能用地的保障能力,通过建立国家石油储备制度等方式加强战略性矿产资源供给能力建设,同时在长三角大都市带地区率先实施循环经济战略。
In order to improve population capacity of the Yangtze River Delta, this paper aimed to seek some ways to enhance support ability of resources and environment. Based on the experience of international megalopolis,authors of this paper considered that influential factors of population capacity of the Yangtze River Delta are industry assembling scale,resource support ability and environment capacity. According to the result of population project achieved through institution of population and development in Zhejiang University,population will reach 1.07 ×10^8- 1.17 × 10^8 in the Yangtze River Delta region in the future. By analyzing support factors of economic-population capacity of Yangtze River Delta, it was considered that it is possible for the region to have a population beyond 100 millions,if problems of resource supply and environment capacity can be resolved. We also considered that key factors in determining population capacity in the Yangtze River Delta are levels of land use supply for economic development, supply ability of mineral resources and environment capacity. In order to ensure the stable expansion of population capacity in the region,it is significant to improve safeguard of land use for economic construction by adjusting land use policy at national level,and to strengthen supply ability of strategic mineral resources by establishing the system of oil resources reserve. Meanwhile,the authors suggested that circular economy strategy should be implemented in the Yangtze River Delta region at first.