中文摘要：

以丹江口水库为研究对象，构建多目标调度图优化模型来模拟指导水库调度运行；选择基准年1961～2000年实测旬径流系列进行模拟调度．结果表明：多目标优化调度方式与常规调度方式相比，在不增加防洪风险的前提下，生态供水保证率、多年平均生态供水量和多年平均发电量均得到了提高，且对下游供水量、南水北调工程调水量影响不大，三个生态需水方案的保证率均达到97％以上，多年平均生态供水量和发电量分别增加4．14＆#215;108 m3和0．81＆#215;108 kW ＆#183; h ，增幅分别达3．21％和2．13％．将GCM 模式的输出作为分布式V IC水文模型输入，预测了未来90 a三个时期汉江流域的径流变化，并验证多目标优化调度图能很好地适应未来气候情景的变化．

英文摘要：

The multipurpose optimization model for operating rule curves was established and used to simulate the operation of reservoir .The Danjiangkou Reservoir was selected as the case study ,and 10 day runoff series from 1961 to 2010 was used as the reservoir inflow .It is shown that the multipur-pose optimization operation can generate extra 0 .414 billion m3 ecological water supply （or increase 3 .21% ） and 0 .081 billion kW ＆#183; h power （or increase 2 .13% ） than those of the design operating rule curves ,respectively .The assurance probability of ecological water supply ,annual average ecological water supply and power generation were improved in the multipurpose optimization operation without increasing flood control risk and no significant impact on water supply of downstream and south-to-north water diversion .The impact analysis of runoff made with the outputs from GCM （global climate model） as input of the VIC （variable infiltration capacity ） distributed model ,predicted the runoff change for future 90 a in the Hanjiang basin .M ultipurpose reservoir operating rule curves can effec-tively adapt to the climate change .