从系统动力学的角度,系统考察对无偿献血者流失行为有影响的各种效应,研究无偿献血者保持率的演变路径和演变规律。首先,基于系数的研究方法定量刻画了激励的保持效应、感知风险效应、口碑传播效应对无偿献血者流失行为的影响程度。其次,给出了无偿献血者保持率和保持周期的计算模型,并进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,不同类型的无偿献血者由于首次献血后的保持率不同,其保持率的演变路径也不同,需要采用不同的针对性保持策略,以提高其保持率和保持周期,稳定无偿献血者队伍。
The churn of non-remunerated blood donors has become one of the major issues in China. To analyze the evolution route and mechanism of retention rate of non-remunerated blood donors,various effects on the churn behavior of non-remunerated blood donors are investigated from the perspective of system dynamics. Firstly,the influence degree of motivation retention effect,perceived risk effect and word-of-mouth effect to the churn behavior of non-remunerated blood donors is depicted quantitatively by using coefficient-based method. Secondly,prediction models for the retention rate and the retention cycle are developed and demonstrated. The results show that different types of non-remunerated blood donors have different evolution routes of retention rate owing to different retention rate after their first blood donations. Therefore,we need to adopt different kinds of corresponding strategies to increase the retention rate and retention cycle,and to enhance the loyalty of non-remunerated blood donors.