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黑河干流出山径流对气候变化的响应

ISSN号：1002-5634
期刊名称：《华北水利水电大学学报：自然科学版》
时间：0
分类：TV211[水利工程—水文学及水资源]
作者机构：[1]南召县水土保持科学试验站,河南南召474650, [2]南阳市水土保持监督监测站,河南南阳473000, [3]华北水利水电大学资源与环境学院,河南郑州450045
相关基金：水利部黄土高原水土流失过程与控制重点实验室开放课题（201305）

关键词：黑河干流, 出山地表径流量, 气候变化, Mann-Kendall秩相关分析, 多元线性回归, Heihe River, surface runoff from mountainous area, climate change, Mann-Kendall rank correlation analysis, multiple linear regression

中文摘要：

根据黑河干流河源区气象及水文台站50 a的观测资料,采用Mann-Kendall及多元线性回归分析方法,研究了黑河干流河源区50 a气候变化的特征及其对地表径流的影响.结果表明：1959—2008年,黑河干流河源区气候发生了显著的变化,主要表现在气温升高和降水量增加;从变化的时间段来看,1980年之前气候变化较为平稳,1980年以后变化剧烈;地表径流量总体呈增加态势,其年际变化特征与气候变化特征较为同步,反映了气候变化因素对地表径流的影响起主导作用,特别是在1980年之后,气候变化引起冰川消融的变化,进而对地表径流产生重要影响;受气候变化影响,冰川的融水特征经历了由强消融期—稳定消融期—消融增强期变化的特征,冰川消融变化对降水因子的变化较为敏感.

英文摘要：

According to the observational datum of the meteorological and hydrological stations in the source area of Heihe River for 50 years,and with the methods of Mann-Kendall and multiple linear regression,this paper analyses the climate change and its impacts on the surface runoff during the recent 50 years. The results show： from 1959 to 2008,the climate in the source area of Heihe River changes obviously,which highlights that the temperature and precipitation increase; from the time region of variation,the climate change is stable before 1980,and it is drastic after 1980; the surface runoff is of a increasing trend,and its annual variation characteristics is more synchronized with the variation characteristics of climate,which reflects the climate change plays a leading role in influences on the surface runoff; especially after 1980,the climate change can result in the change of glacial ablation,which will have an important influence on the surface runoff; the melt water of glacier appears the change characteristics from the strong ablation period,and the stable ablation period to the strengthened ablation period,and the change of glacial ablation is sensitive to the change of rainfall.