相对于货物贸易,服务贸易内嵌的技术和知识含量更高,表现出更强烈的溢出效应。文章首先建立了一个南北服务贸易模型,分析了进口服务贸易对后发国家技术追赶的作用;然后基于中印两国与28个OECD国家双边服务贸易数据,测算了两国进口服务贸易的知识溢出,并利用2000–2013年的面板数据分析了进口服务贸易对中印两国缩短与发达国家技术差距的影响。研究表明,进口服务贸易可以帮助我国完成对发达国家的技术追赶;由于发展模式的差异,进口服务贸易会抑制印度技术追赶的步伐。因此,发展中国家应当鼓励服务业开放,鼓励服务贸易;同时,要注意服务业开放序列,大力发展知识密集的服务贸易。
With respect to trade in goods, trade in services is embedded by more technology and knowledge contents, showing a stronger spillover effect. This paper firstly establishes a North-South model of trade in services to analyze the effect of import of trade in services on late developing countries' technological catching-up; then based on bilateral service trade data with 28 OECD countries from China and India, it measures the knowledge spillover from import of trade in services between the two countries. In addition, it analyzes the impact of trade in services on shorting the technology gap with the developed countries in China and India by using the panel data from 2000 to 2013. Researches demonstrate that import of trade in services helps China to complete the technological catching-up with developed countries; however India' s import of trade in services inhibits the pace of its technological catching-up due to differences in development mode. Therefore, developing countries should encourage services' opening-up and trade in services; at the same time, they should pay attention to the opening-up order of services and make great efforts to develop knowledge-intensive trade in services.