中文摘要：

第三产业的发展状况对＂百年目标＂的实现举足轻重。为了定量认知＂十三五＂时期洛阳市第三产业的发展态势,本文运用洛阳市1978-2014年的第三产业数据以及时间序列建模方法,建立了具有三次趋势的残差AR（1）模型,并对2015-2020年洛阳市第三产业产值进行了预测,结果表明：＂十三五＂时期洛阳市第三产业的发展速度将减缓,平均增长速度为4.23%;2020年第三产业的产值为1552.9亿元,这将是2010年的2.1倍。

英文摘要：

Development of the third industry is very import to realize the first hundred years goal. In order to quantitatively cognize the change of the third industry in Luoyang, an AR （1）model with cubic trend is established based on the data of third industry in 1978-2014 and time series modeling method. Forecast for the output values of third industry in 2015-2020 is done. The results show that the development rate of Luoyang＇s third industry in the period of the thirteenth five-year plan will reduce. The average growth rate is about 4.23%. In 2020, the third industry＇s output value will arrive to 155.29 billion yuan, which is 2.1 times as much as that in 2010.