中文摘要：

区域经济发展水平不同是导致农地社会保障功能替代程度差异化的重要因素，而农地作为农民的最后一道社会保障，其社会保障功能能否得到有效替代是农地流转的关键所在。本文以京冀平原区中自然条件相似但是经济发展水平不同的北京市海淀区、大兴区和河北省曲周县作为研究区域，从农地生产功能、价值功能和劳动力承载功能3个方面测算农地社会保障功能替代程度，采取二项Logistic回归模型正向分析农地社会保障功能替代程度对农地流转意愿的影响，并反向分析实际流转行为对于农地社会保障功能替代程度是否有反馈作用，量化二者的关系，以期为农地流转提供合理的政策建议。研究结果：农地的价值功能替代程度和劳动力承载替代程度越高，农户越愿意将土地转出，而不愿意转入土地；反之农户实际的转出土地行为促进农地价值功能替代程度和劳动力承载替代程度的提高，转入土地的行为促进替代程度的降低。研究结论：农地的价值功能替代程度和劳动力承载替代程度与农地流转之间存在良性互动的关系。

英文摘要：

Different levels of regional economic development lead to different substitution degrees of social security function farmland. This paper selected Haidian and Daxing districts in Beijing and Quzhou county in Hebei as focal areas because they have similar natural conditions but different levels of economic development. We explored the substitution degree of the social insurance function of farmland from three aspects including land production function, land value function and land labor bearing function. Using a logistic model to analyze how willingness towards farmland transfer affects the substitution degree of farmland social insurance function our goal was to determine whether circulation behavior provides feedback to the substitution of farmland social insurance function. We found that farmers are more willing to tum out than to turn in when there is a higher substitution degree of the land value function and land labor bearing function. The actual turn-in behavior of farmland will contribute to the substitution degree of the land value function and land labor bearing function, and the actual ram-out behavior of agricultural land will increase the substitution degree of the land value function and land labor bearing function. We conclude that the substitution degree of the land value function and the substitution degree of land labor bearing function have a positive relationship with farmland transfer.