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中文摘要：
针对如何根据导弹少量陆上飞行试验及大量海上仿真试验的目标截获结果推算到海上实际飞行试验结果的问题，首先推导出目标截获概率的模型，得到截获概率是关于信杂比的函数的结论，接着引入仿真可信度的概念，对陆上飞行试验结果和仿真结果进行融合，提出了一种基于Logistic回归模型的目标截获概率等效方法。仿真结果表明，该方法实用可行。
英文摘要：
Aiming at the problem which is how to calculate the missile capturing target result for actual air test on the sea according to the capturing target results for simulated air tests on the sea and actual air tests on the land, the model of the target capture probability was concluded and the conclusion that the target capture probability is the function of Signalto-Clutter （SCR） was derived. Combing the actual air test results on the land and simulated test results by simulation credibility, an equivalent method for target capture probability based on Logistic regression model was proposed. The simulation results show that the method is effective and valuable.
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