中文摘要：

考虑到传统确定性分析方法的局限性和现行多能源接入电力系统的复杂度,从风险角度出发,计及多重不确定因素建立元件和系统故障概率模型.基于蒙特卡洛模拟和时域仿真进行系统暂态稳定概率评估,在构建包含功角、电压、潮流等在内的单次抽样风险指标体系的同时,提出一种有效量化系统应对暂态扰动能力的暂态稳定全局性概率和风险裕度指标.新英格兰10机39节点等系统的算例评估结果验证了所提算法的可行性.

英文摘要：

Due to the limitations of traditional deterministic analysis and the complexity of power system integration for multiple existing power sources,a probability model considering multiple uncertainties is built from the perspective of risk for the faults of elements and system.The probability of system transient stability is assessed based on Monte Carlo simulation and time-domain simulation.While a risk index system is built for the single sampling containing power angle,voltage,power flow,etc.,an overall probability of transient stability and a risk margin index are proposed,which can effectively quantify the ability of system coping with the transient disturbance.Results of assessment for New England 10-generator 39-bus system verify the feasibility of the proposed method.