货币政策发挥调控作用的约束条件包括3个方面:未实际使用的经济资源、国民经济的信用化程度、供给曲线的斜率。当供给曲线的斜率K_1=0时,货币政策的调控作用最大;当供给曲线的斜率K_2=(y_2-y_1)/(x_2-x_1)〉0时,货币政策能够有效发挥调控作用,其调控效率的大小取决于产出水平与物价水平之间的对比状况;当供给曲线的斜率K_3=(y_3-y_3)/(x_3-x_3)〈0时,供给曲线与货币政策所推动的需求曲线具有相似的走势,扩张性货币政策在压制物价下降的同时也抑制了经济的增长,紧缩性货币政策反倒能够推动经济增长,同时伴有物价水平的上升。这是一种比较难以理解的极端现象;当供给曲线的斜率K_4=∞时,货币政策陷入"流动性陷阱",完全无法有效推动经济增长。当前,全球货币政策已经走向分化,国际金融市场动荡不安、危机四伏,中国经济增长面临下行压力,同时又存在潜在的系统性金融风险。未来货币政策需要财政政策的配合,可行的选择可能在于实施积极的财政政策以稳定经济增长,实施紧缩性货币政策以防范系统性金融风险。
The constraint conditions of monetary policy in regulating include three aspects: economic resources without actual use,credit degree of national economy,and slope of the supply curve. When the slope of the supply curve is K_1= 0,the regulatory role of monetary policy is the largest; when the slope of the supply curve is K_2=(y_2-y_1)/(x_2-x_1) 0,monetary policy can effectively play a role of regulation,the size of its regulation efficiency depends on the contrast between output level and price level. When the slope of the supply curve is K_3=(y_3-y_3)/(x_3-x_3) 0,supply curve and demand curve driven by monetary policy have similar trends,expansionary monetary policy suppresses economic growth while also inhibiting the growth of the economy,but tighter monetary policy can promote economic growth,at the same time accompanied by a decline in the price level,this is a relatively extreme phenomenon. When the slope of the supply curve is K_4= ∞,monetary policy falls into a "liquidity trap",it is completely unable to effectively promote economic growth. Currently,global monetary policy has been moving towards differentiation,the international financial market is characterized by turbulence and intranquility,being ridden with crises,China's economic growth is facing downward pressure while also exists potential systemic financial risk. Future monetary policy requires fiscal policy to cooperate. Viable options are likely to implement proactive fiscal policy to stabilize economic growth,implementing tight monetary policy to prevent systemic financial risk.