中文摘要：

分析了工厂生产能力分别服从正态分布、指数分布和β分布,并且需求为一阶自回归AR（1）过程的情况下,生产能力变异性对供应链中牛鞭效应的影响。所得结论为：①工厂生产能力的变异性可以导致牛鞭效应;②工厂生产能力的增大本身可以缓冲需求不确定性对供应链中牛鞭效应的影响,但生产能力的变异性对牛鞭效应的影响比生产能力大小对牛鞭效应的影响更敏感。

英文摘要：

Bullwhip effect is the phenomenon that the demand variability increases as one moves up a supply chain.The source of Bullwhip effect is the uncertainties which exist in the supply chain.Under AR（1） demand,the influence of variability of a plant＇s production capacity on the bullwhip effect is analyzed in different scenarios,i.e.,production capacity with normal,exponential and beta distributions.It is concluded in this paper that： firstly,the variability of the plant＇s production capacity can lead to bullwhip effect in the supply chain; secondly,the increase of the plant＇s production capacity can be a buffer against the impact of demand uncertainty on bullwhip effect,but the bullwhip effect is more sensitive to the variability of the plant＇s production capacity than to the size of the production capacity.