中文摘要：

国际原油价格自2002年以来持续上涨，部分人士认为中国需求是主要原因。分析2002年到2012年原油价格的影响因素，我们发现原油价格的长期走势受美国股票指数影响最大，全球需求居次，中国需求没有显著影响。短期来看，虽然中国需求显著影响原油定价，但其程度弱于美国金融因素。进而分析金融因素影响原油价格的作用机理，实证发现金融投机对原油市场存在导向作用和放大作用。我们认为，金融投机是2002年以来原油价格持续上涨和2008年暴涨暴跌的主要原因。

英文摘要：

Does China＇s demand push up the oil prices？ We empirically find that the stock market of the United States plays an important role in pricing the oil. Although the influence of the Chinese demand factor is somehow significant in the short term, the American financial factor is more influential. We further find that the American financial factor has the lead effect as well as the amplification effect on changing oil prices. We argue that it is not the de- mand from China, but the American financial factor that has shaped the oil prices during the period from 2002 to 2012.