首先,系统梳理了国内外已有的动态死亡率建模方法存在的问题,提出了改进的思路,总结了量化长寿风险的各种模型与方法。其次,结合国外长寿风险管理工具的应用及发展,主要包括保险公司年金产品与寿险产品的自然对冲、再保险、长寿风险证券化的理论研究与实践经验,探讨其在我国实施的可行性及实施中可能存在的问题。该研究可作为我国长寿风险量化与管理的基础研究,有望为我国长寿风险定量评估体系的构建提供参考与借鉴。
In the present paper we systematically collated the existing problems with ideas for modifications and improvements as regards with methods of modeling dynamic mortality rates, both domestic and overseas. We also summarized various models and methods for quantifying longevity risks. In view of the overseas applications and development of management tools for longevity risks, mainly the theoretical research and practical experiences with respect to natural hedging between annuity and life insurance products and securitization ofreinsurance and longevity risks ,we discussed the feasibility and possible existing problems for their implementation in China. This study can be regarded as a basic research on longevity risk quantification and management in China, which hopefully can provide a reference for the construction of China' s quantitative assessment system on longevity risks