中文摘要：

利用海平面变化预测模型,预测了渤黄东海未来海平面的上升值。该模型考虑了温室效应和地壳升降。根据潮波运动基本方程和海平面上升的预测值,数值模拟了渤黄东海潮波系统的变化。结果显示,半日分潮（M2,S2）的振幅变化ΔH（或位相变化Δg）有相似的正负分布模式,全日分潮（K1,Q1）的也是如此。考虑和不考虑地壳升降情况下得到的正负分布模式,在黄海存在着较明显的差别,那是由于在黄海存在一个范围很广的海平面变化年速率为负的区域所致。在我国沿岸主要站点,考虑地壳升降情况下获得的主要分潮振幅与不考虑的相比,其中M2分潮的差别最大,其差值范围为-1.8～3.3 cm。在主要站点,利用考虑地壳升降情况下获得的调和常数计算所得的海图深度基准面、最高和最低天文潮位,与利用原调和常数计算所得的相比,海图深度基准面的变化范围为-12.4～14.6 cm,最高天文潮位的变化范围为-11.7～13.0 cm,最低天文潮位的变化范围为-11.9～10.5 cm。

英文摘要：

Rise values of mean-sea-level were forecast in the Bohai Sea, the Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea based on the forecasting model for the change of future mean-sea-level. This model is to take both the effect of greenhouse and the rise and fall of sea bottom earth＇ s crust into account, the numerical modeling of tidal waves was made in the area by the use of tidal equations and the forecast rise values of mean-sea-level. The results show that for the semidiurnal constituents, the distribution models of positive and negative changes of amplitudes（or phases）are similar, the same is true of the diurnal constituents. In comparison between the distribution models with and without considering the earth＇s crust change, it is found that there are remarkable differences in the Huanghai Sea, which are due to the existence of wide waters with negative annual rate of mean-sealevel variation. In some coastal stations of the area, the differences of M2 amplitudes considering both the effect of greenhouse and the earth＇s crust change and M2 amplitudes considering the effect of greenhouse only are the largest among 8 constituents, which range is - 1.8- 3.3 cm. For these stations, some tidal extremes are computed by the use of the harmonics modeled in consideration of both the effect of greenhouse and the earth＇ s crust change, and the current harmonics, it is seen from comparison of two kinds of extremes that, the range of differences of Marine Chart Depth Datums can reach - 12.4- 14.6 cm, the range of differences of the highest astronomic tidal levels can reach - 11.7-13.0 cm, and the range of differences of the lowest astronomic tidal levels can reach - 11.9- 10.5 cm.