哈萨克斯坦坚戈发行以来,对内价值相对稳定,对外价值大起大落。究其原因发现,哈萨克斯坦中央银行对通货膨胀的控制力极强,但是,在通过贬值促进出口产业发展进而带动经济快速增长的政策引导下,其中央银行借助固定汇率制度的优势多次法定贬值,而自由浮动汇率制度的实施更是加剧了坚戈对外价值的急剧振荡。哈萨克斯坦经济增速的降低、贸易顺差的减少、国际储备的下降和外债规模的增加制约了坚戈升值的空间,俄罗斯危机、石油价格大跌、美元持续升值是坚戈贬值的外在动力。可见,浮动汇率制度的实施加大了哈萨克斯坦中央银行捍卫坚戈币值稳定的复杂性和艰巨性,坚戈货币安全的风险与隐患令人担忧。而中国是哈萨克斯坦重要的贸易伙伴国和投资合作国,坚戈汇率的不确性必将影响中国相关主体的经济利益,因此,构建防范坚戈货币安全隐患与风险体系已迫在眉睫。
Since the Kazakhstani tenge has been issued,the internal value of tenge is relative stable,however,its external value is unstable. The reason is the control of inflation by the Kazakhstan' s central bank is strong. However,under the policy ef the increasing of economy by imprevement of exports and imports industry through depreciation. The Kazakhstan' s central bank made official devaluation for many times by using the fixed exchange rate system. While the implementation of floating exchange rate system intensified the rapid fluctuation of the tenge' s external value. The appreciation of tenge is restricted by the decreasing of the growth rate of Kazakhstan' s economy,the reduction of favorable balance of trade,the decline of international reserves and the increasing of foreign debt scale. Russian crisis, the fall in oil prices and the appreciation of US dollar increased the external motivation of the depreciation of tenge. The implementation of floating exchange rate system enhanced the difficult of maintaining the stable of tenge. The currency risk of the tenge has became to a problem. China is one of the Kazakhstan' s most important trade and investment partners. The uncertainty of tenge' s exchange rate will influence the economic profits of China' s relevant principals. Therefore,the construction of protection system of tenge' s insecurity and risk is imperative.