中文摘要：

基于海河流域30 个气象站点1960-2009年的实测资料，分析该流域1960年以来农业气象指标的变化趋势，并利用VIP模型模拟分析大气CO2浓度增加、温度、降雨和日照时数变化对作物产量的影响。结果显示：冬季温度的显著上升使冬小麦种植北界在50年间向北移动大约70 km；在品种和灌溉条件不变的前提下，小麦产量平均每10年上升0.2%-3.4%，其中CO2浓度增加、温度、降雨及日照时数变化对其产量的影响分别为11.0%、0.7%、-0.2%和-6.5%；大气CO2浓度增加的产量正效应大于日照时数减少的负效应。气候变化使夏玉米产量呈下降趋势（0.6%-3.8%/10年），其中大气CO2浓度增加、温度、降雨及日照时数变化对其产量的影响分别为0.7%、-3.6%、-1.0%和-6.8%，温度上升和辐射下降是玉米产量下降的主要原因。研究结果可为气候变化影响的评估和适应性对策制定提供科学依据。

英文摘要：

According to the 30 climatic stations with climatic records from 1960 to 2009 in Haihe River Basin, the classical calculation methods of agro-meteorological indicators was adopted to analyze the changes of temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration in the past 50 years. With the aid of VIP crop model, the effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment, temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration variations on crop yield was study separately. The results show that the north limit of winter wheat moved northward by approximately 70 km in recent 50 years due to the significant temperature rising in winter. Based on the assumption that the irrigation amount and the crop varieties remained same in recent 50years, the wheat yield shows an upward trend （0.2%-3.4%/10 years）. Roughly 11%, 0.7%, -0.2% and -6.5% variability of wheat yield can be explained by atmospheric CO2 enrichment, temperature rise, precipitation decline and sunshine duration decrease, respectively. The positive effect introduced by atmospheric CO2 enrichment offsets most negative effect introduced by sunshine duration declining, indicating that atmospheric CO2 enrichment is the main causes of the wheat yield rising. The maize yield shows a downward trend （0.6%~3.8%/10 years） in the recent 50 years when the irrigation amount and the maize varieties remained same. Roughly 0.7%, -3.6%, -1.0% and -6.8% variability of maize yield can be explained by atmospheric CO2 enrichment, temperature rise, precipitation decline and sunshine duration decrease, respectively, indicating that the sunshine duration decrease and the temperature rise are the main causes of the maize yield declining. These results can provide scientific supports for the assessment of the impact of climate change on agriculture and its adaptation countermeasures formulation.