中文摘要：

在国家统计局在线数据库中,检索民航旅客运输量数据,探讨PASW/Time Series Modeler模块预测我国民航旅客运输量效果,并短期预测运输量。1985-2014年民航累计运输旅客345,084万人,年均增长14.63%。基于1985-2012年运输量数据,拟合Brown和ARIMA模型预测2013年、2014年民航旅客运输量,拟合优度指标R2均大于0.75,相对误差最大值为3.14%（〈5%）。采用新建模型预测2015年、2016年民航旅客运输量为42,466万人、45,847万人,分别较前一年增加10.71%、7.91%。未来两年,民航旅客运输量年均增长率呈下降趋势。

英文摘要：

The data of China civil aviation （ CAAC） passenger transport volume （ PTV） were downloaded from the online database of the National Statistic Bureau. The effect of PASW/Time Series Modeler in predicting CAAC PTV was explored, and the short-term PTV was predicted. From 1985 to 2014, CAAC has transported 3,450.84 million passengers, with an annual average growth rate of 14.63%. Based on the PTV data from 1985-2012, the Brown and ARIMA models were built to predict the 2013 and 2014 PTV. The goodness fitting index R2 were all large than 0.75, and the maximum relative error value was 3.14% （less than 5%）. The new models predict that the PTV will be 424.66, 458.47 million by 2015, 2016 respectively, and increase 10.71% and 7.91% compared with the previous year. These forecasting results for indicate that the PTV annual average growth rate would be decreased in the next 2 years.