中文摘要：

为降低官方辟谣信息缺位情况下谣言传播带来的负面影响,考虑公众辟谣及反馈机制,建立谣言传播模型及平均场方程。对方程进行数学分析,利用四阶龙格-库塔法求解方程,确定谣言传播的临界点。以系统中参数表示公众批判意识、公众辟谣能力、辟谣信息反馈机制作用强度、谣言辨识重要性等影响因子,以谣言传播激烈程度和负面影响范围表示谣言传播结果,分析单个影响因子变化对谣言传播结果的影响。结果表明,提高公众批判意识和辟谣能力、强化辟谣信息反馈机制、依据谣言辨识重要性优化谣言管理等是有效的谣言管理措施。

英文摘要：

For the sake of reducing the negative effect brought by rumor propagation in the absence of official rumor refutation information,a rumor propagation model was built and mean-field equations were established after considering rumor refutation of public and feedback mechanism. The equations were analyzed and then solved with the four-order Runge-Kutta method. The threshold for rumor propagation was determined. Parameters in the system were used to represent influencing factors including public＇s critical consciousness,public＇s rumor refutation ability,strength of rumor refutation information feedback mechanism and importance of identifying rumors. Rumor propagation results were interpreted by rumor propagation fierceness and negative influence scope. Influence of changing one influencing factor on rumor propagation results was analyzed. Results show that improving public＇s critical consciousness and rumor refutation ability,facilitating rumor refutation information feedback mechanism,and priority management of rumors based on importance of rumor identification are effective rumor management measures.