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中文摘要：
2011年以来，我国为了控制持续高涨的物价水平，货币政策已由适度宽松调整到稳健，然而回归常态化的货币政策效果低于预期。在此背是下，定性定量地分析国际资本的流动对我国当前稳健的货币政策效果影响就显得尤为重要。通过利用改进的蒙代尔一弗莱明理论模型进行定性分析可以发现，我国货币政策的效果主要取决于两个方面：资本流入的多少和汇率制度的浮动程度。进一步借助VAR模型分析影响程度，表明外汇占款对货币供应量的影响主要体现在短期内，而且外汇占款增量对货币供应增量的影响并不十分明显。基于此，我国可以考虑适当扩大汇率浮动的空间，并加强资本流动监控与管理。
英文摘要：
Since 2011, in order to control the continuous rising price, the monetary policy has been adjusted to steady from moderately loose, but the effect of monetary policy which has returned to normality is under expectation. Under this background, it is important to discuss the impact of international capital flows on China＇s current prudent monetary policy based on qualitative and quan- titative analysis. Through the use of improved Mundell-Fleming model theory and qualitative analy- sis, it turns out that the effect of China＇s monetary policy is depended mainly on two aspects： how much capital inflows and the exchange rate system of floating degree. Furthermore, with the VAR model analysis of impact degree, it shows that the impact of foreign exchange on money supply is effective in a short term, and the impact of foreign exchange on money supply increase is not obvi-ous. Based on it, we can consider to appropriately expand the space of floating exchange rate, and to strengthen capital flow monitoring and control.
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