中文摘要：

人口分布及其变化规律成为人口学和地理信息科学研究的前沿及热点问题之一。选取第四次和第五次人口普查数据及2005年统计数据．结合国家资源环境数据库公里格网人口分布数据及其他数据分析荆江分洪区这一敏感区域近15年来人口变化特征：（1）人口重心向东南向移动；（2）区内人口分布不均衡，先集中后分散。总体趋势是向乡镇政府所在地及自然条件好的地区集中；（3）县政府所在地斗湖堤镇人口分布变化最大，人口也最集中。麻豪口镇和闸口镇人口最分散．此三镇决定区内人口分布变动总体趋势。（4）土地利用尤其是城镇用地及农村居民点变化是引起区内人口分布变化的重要因素．此外自然条件、政策、经济、三峡工程等对区内人口分布变化也有一定影响。

英文摘要：

Population distribution and its change rule have become the focus and frontier of demography and geographic information science. Based on the data gained from the fourth and fifth national census （1990 and 2000）, related statistical data of 2005, and with the help of the national resource and environment database, we investigate the demographic distribution changes of population quantity, population structure, population even degree and kilometer grid-based population distribution of every village and town in Jingjiang flood diversion area. We also analyze the driving factors of these phenomena. We find out that except natural environment, policy and economy and so on, land use is the main factor especially for urban land use and rural residential land use.