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中文摘要：
本文系统界定了农业综合生产能力、农业综合生产能力安全和资源安全阈值等基本概念,以耕地和水资源为重点,分别构建和应用了基于农业综合生产能力安全的资源阈值模型与资源保障评测标准。测算结果表明,2020年全国粮食安全需求量为5.14～5.42亿t,耕地和灌溉水资源阈值分别为12363.3万hm^2和3417亿m^3,分别存在约5%和7%的供需缺口;2030年,全国粮食安全需求量为5.51～5.82亿t,耕地和灌溉水资源阈值分别为12796.2万hm^2和3242亿m^3,分别存在约10%和3%的供需缺口。未来我国农业资源供给压力呈扩大趋势,应以水、土资源阈值为底线,加快制定国家农业基本资源安全战略。
英文摘要：
The paper systematically defined the some basic concepts,such as the agricultural comprehensive production capability,the security of agricultural comprehensive production capability and the threshold of resource security.With emphasis on arable land and water resource,we respectively constructed and applied the resource threshold model and the evaluation criterion of resource guarantee,which based on the security of agricultural comprehensive production capability.The results shows that the national food security demand will reach up to 513.9-542.45 million tons by 2020 and 550.8-581.4 million tons by 2030.Up to 2020,the threshold of arable land and water resource for irrigation respectively reach up to 123.633 million hm^2 and 341.7 billion m^3,and the demand-supply gap respectively is 5% and 7%;Up to 2030,the threshold of arable land and water resource for irrigation respectively reach up to 127.962 million hm^2 and 324.2 billion m^3,and the demand-supply gap respectively is 10% and 3%.In the foreseeable future,the supply pressure of agricultural resource trend to increase,so we should take threshold of water and land resource as bottom line,and accelerate making the national security strategy of the agricultural basic resources.
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