中文摘要：

将相对信息熵引入多重环境时间相似理论（METS）,提出一种更可靠的沿海混凝土结构寿命预测方法.氯离子侵入模型基于Fick第二定律,考虑氯离子扩散系数和表面氯离子质量分数的时间变异性.通过Monte-Carlo数值模拟方法对新建沿海混凝土结构在具有给定目标可靠度情况下的使用寿命进行预测.以某跨海大桥为研究对象,选取处于相似环境的某码头为参照物.综合参照物现场检测信息和室内加速试验信息,得到室外暴露环境下研究对象耐久性劣化参数的估计值.在耐久性极限状态目标可靠度为2.3的条件下,研究对象使用寿命的预测值为122a,满足设计使用寿命100a的要求.

英文摘要：

A new more reliable method for service life prediction of coastal concrete structures was presented by introducing the relativistic information entropy into multi-environmental time similarity（METS） method.The chloride ion penetration model based on the Fick＇s second law and considered the temporal variation of diffusion coefficient and surface chloride concentration.The service life of new coastal concrete structures was calculated by Monte-Carlo simulations under a given target reliability.A sea-crossing bridge was chosen for the object structure,and a harbor was selected as the reference structure.The deterioration parameters of the object structure under outdoor exposure environment were reckoned by combining the information of the field detection and the indoor accelerated experiments.Under the condition that the target reliability of durability limit state is 2.3,the service life prediction of object structure is 122 years,meeting the requirement of 100 years.