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中文摘要：
根据华南地区80个气象站点1960-2013年的气象数据，利用标准化降水指数（SPI）、小波分析等方法对华南地区的气候变化特征进行分析，以探求全球变暖背景下该地区气候和旱涝灾害的变化趋势，以期为华南地区的旱涝灾害的预警提供依据．结果显示：（1）近54年华南地区年平均气温为19．95℃，以0．17℃／10a的速率上升；气温在1993年发生突变．（2）降水量呈上升趋势，倾向率为8．775mm／10a．气温突变后，年平均气温和夏季气温上升的速率增加，降水量下降的速率减少；春季由冷湿化转为暖湿化；秋季由暖干化转为暖湿化；而冬季则由暖湿化转为暖干化．（3）该地区年均降水量空间分布大致分为两大区域：云南省区域的年均降水量大致沿纬度方向由北向南依次增加，呈现纬度地带性；广东省、广西省和海南省区域的年均降水量大致沿经度方向由东向西依次增加，呈现出经度地带性．（4）气温突变后雨涝增多，干旱减少．因此，近54年华南地区的气候呈现出暖湿化的趋势．
英文摘要：
According to the meteorological data of 80 stations in South China, influences of dif- ferent disaster inducing factors on climate change were analyzed, using Mann-Kendall test method, standardized precipitation index, the wavelet analysis, to explore the trend of drought and flood under global warming background. The results showed that： （1） In the last 54 years, the annual average temperature was 19.95 ℃ in South China, with a linear tendency being 0.17 ℃/ 10a. The abrupt change of average annual temperature occurred in 1993. （2）The precipitation in South China was increasing with the speed of 8. 775 mm/10a. After the abrupt change of temperature,the temperature increased fast, while the precipitation decreased rapidly. The colding and wetting in spring changed to warming and wetting; the warming and drying in autumn changed to warming and wetting; the warming and wetting in winter changed to warming and drying. （3）According to the amount of annual precipitation, South China area was divided into two regions： the average annual precipitation in Yunnan province was increasing along the latitude direction from north to south; the average annual precipitation in the other provinces were increasing along the longitude direction from east to west. （4） The flood increased and drought reduced after the abrupt change of temperature. The frequency of flood increased in some areas, while the frequency of drought reduced in space. Therefore, the overall climate change presented a warming and wetting trend.
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