中文摘要：

揭示全球气候变化对贵州省径流模数潜在影响可为该区优化配置水资源、确定水土保持治理的重点区域以及减少由降雨季节性分布不均引发旱涝灾害提供依据。该文以贵州省22个主要气象和水文站的降雨和径流等资料为基础,建立降雨和径流之间的统计关系。采用DELTA方法,根据HadCM3模型对A2情景（人口快速增长、经济发展缓慢）和B2情景（强调社会技术创新）下输出的不同时期的降雨量以及实测的贵州省降雨量和径流模数资料,推算出贵州省2006-2035年、2036-2065年和2066-2095年前后两个时期之间径流模数的增减量;研究结果为：A2和B2情景下未来3个时期径流模数逐渐增大,相对于基准期1961-1990年最大增幅分别达17.52%和10.58%。不同情景和不同时期径流模数变化的空间分布差异较大,A2情景下径流模数的变化比B2情景下更为剧烈。在贵州省石漠化严重的地区,当径流增加较多时,不仅需要考虑水资源的充分合理利用,还需兼顾防止水土流失的加剧。

英文摘要：

Runoff modulus can be expected to change in correspondence to changes in climate.It is helpful for effectively using water resources and resolving drought and flood in karst regional to analyze the response of runoff to global climate changes.This study was conducted to assess the potential effects of climate change on runoff modulus in karst area of Guizhou under scenarios A2 and B2 with HadCM3 for the periods of 2020s,2050s and 2080s.In order to calculate runoff modulus in the three periods it is necessary that rainfall and runoff modulus be collected which comes from Hydrology Record of Yangtze River（1956-1979） and Survey and Appraise Water Resource Exploiting and Utilizing in Guizhou Province.Rainfall record of 2020s,2050s and 2080s under scenario A2 and B2 should be downloaded from IPCC Data Distribution Centre.Runoff modulus can be calculated by means of DELTA and relationship between rainfall and runoff modulus.Spatial distribution maps of changing trends of runoff modulus were accomplished by Geographic Information System software.The result showed that changing trend of runoff was determined by rainfall.Runoff modulus showed a notable increase both in scenario A2 and B2 across Guizhou except for a small area.Runoff modulus decreased in Zuiyi and Tongren under scenario A2 and B2 from 1980s to 2020s.The spatial distribution of increasing runoff modulus is different.Under scenario A2 runoff modulus have the maximal increasing trends in Qian Xi-nan,the increase range is 0.5~0.9 L/（km2·s） from 1980s to 2020s.The increase range of runoff modulus is greater than 2 L/（km2·s） in east of Guizhou from 2020s to 2050s.Runoff modulus increasing trend has reached 3.5~4.4 L/（km2·s） in east of Qian Dong-nan,Qian Nan and south of Qian Dong-nan from 2050s to 2080s.Under scenario B2 runoff modulus have the maximal increasing trends in Qian Xi-nan and south of Qian Nan,the increase range is 1.0~1.6 L/（km2·s） from 1980s to 2020s.The increase range of runoff modulus is 1.0~1.5 L/（km2·s） in south of