中文摘要：

为提高对空中目标的拦截与毁伤概率,提出一种基于分布式多爆炸成型弹丸（MEFP）战斗部的拦截方式,并给出计算毁伤概率的工程算法。通过目标构型分析建立目标等效模型,在此基础上建立分布式MEFP战斗部与等效目标的交汇模型,并利用射击线技术,构建分布式MEFP战斗部对空中目标毁伤概率的计算模型。利用蒙特卡洛方法对毁伤概率进行了仿真。结果表明：弹目交汇距离、EFP速度及目标终点速度对毁伤概率具有较大的影响,研究结果为分布式MEFP战斗部威力设计提供了重要参考。

英文摘要：

In order to improve the interception and damage probability of warhead attacking air target,a new method based on distributed multiple explosively formed projectile（MEFP）warhead was proposed to intercept the air target.An engineering algorithm for calculating the damage probability was given.The air target equivalent model was built up through constitution analysis of air target.On this basis,the intersection model between distributed MEFP warhead and air target equivalent model was set up.The shot-line technology was used to establish the calculation model for calculating the damage probability to air target by distributed MEFP warhead.The Monte-Carlo simulation for damage probability was carried out.The result shows that the intersection distance between warhead and target,velocity of EFP and velocity of target have a significant influence on the damage probability to air target.The study provides valuable reference for the power design of distributed MEFP warhead.