中文摘要：

以潘家窑矿8#煤层为例，充分考虑了评价区域的水文地质条件存在较大差异性的特点，在煤层底板突水脆弱性评价的基础上对评价区域进行规则网格剖分，通过将评价区域剖分为有限个规则的单元网格，并根据选取主控指标值的属性特点赋予每个单元格不同的属性值，构建了潘家窑矿煤层底板突水评价体系。将变权理论引入煤层底板突水脆弱性预测评价中，应用变权理论确定各评价单元主控指标的权重，最终构建潘家窑矿底板突水危险性评价的分区变权模型。并对研究区域进行评价分区。将分区变权模型下煤层底板脆弱性评价结果与常权模型下的评价结果对比分析，结果表明：变权模型下的评价预测效果更好，评价结果更为合理。

英文摘要：

Based on the conditions of 8# coal seam in Panjiayao Coal Mine, with full consideration on the great difference of hydrogeological condition in different part of the evaluation area, the paper finished regular grid generation for the evaluation area on the basis of coal seam floor vulnerability evaluation. The paper divided the evaluation area into a finite number of regular grid, assigned different attribute values for each grid according to the characteristics of the main controlling factors, then established the coal floor groundwater inrush evaluation system of Panjiayao Coal Mine; introduced the theory of variable weight to the vulnerability evaluation of coal floor groundwater inrush, used variable weight model to determine the weight of main controlling factors for each evaluation unit; and finally built zoning variable weight model of coal floor groundwater inrush evaluation of Panjiayao Coal Mine, then zoned and evaluated the research area. The results of zoning variable weight model were compared with the constant weight model, which showed evaluation effect of the former was more accurate and reasonable.