中文摘要：

空间碎片云由空间物体解体产生的大量空间碎片组成,由于其相对集中地分布在有限的空间内,将会对临近航天器产生较大的碰撞威胁。为了分析解体碎片云长期分布特点,文章首先利用数值积分方法对空间碎片云短期分布规律进行了研究;在此基础上,针对处于环状分布的碎片云,根据碎片所在的轨道高度和具有的面质比值,将碎片划分到不同分组,以每个组作为研究对象,建立了描述碎片云在大气阻力作用下的解析演化模型。模型避免了对单个解体碎片的运动状态进行积分,可大大降低对计算资源和计算时间的需求。考虑在高度为1422km圆轨道上运行的物体,解体产生了1780个碎片,利用解析演化模型得到碎片云未来50年内的演化分布状态。数值结果表明,碎片云的峰值密度在解体物体轨道高度附近,并在大气阻力作用下向更大高度区间内扩散;较低高度区间内碎片密度具有先增加,然后在大气阻力作用下不断减少的特点。

英文摘要：

A space debris cloud consists of numerous breakup fragments which are originated from an instinct space object. As the breakup fragments are in a concentrated distribution, those spacecraft in the neighborhood of the breakup objects will face a serious threat of collision. In order to evaluate the long-term evolution of space debris, the propagation of space debris cloud for a short-term period was analyzed numerically. Based on the stable distribution characteristic of the debris cloud, fragments were divided into several groups according to their orbital heights and area-mass ratios. The long-term distribution under the perturbation of atmosphere drag was described by an analytic evolution model. Comparing with all the fragments propagating individually, the analytic model was more efficient and less timeconsuming. The evolution of a breakup debris cloud consists 1 780 breakup fragments, and was obtaired for the next fifty years. Results show that the peak spatial density of the debris cloud is around the height of the breakup object and will spread into a broader height interval continuously, and the fragments in the lower height interval will firstly increase and then decrease under the perturbation of air drag.