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中文摘要：
本文运用因子分析方法测算1996—2013年中国城镇化发展水平的历史趋势，并建立时变参数向量自回归模型研究城镇化发展对经济增长速度和质量影响的时变特征。结果表明，中国城镇化发展水平呈不断上升的趋势，资源与环境对城镇化发展表现出持续的抑制作用；城镇化发展对经济增长速度和质量的提升存在长期的正向促进效应，但2005年以后其促进效果逐渐弱化，特别在经济新常态时期出现了明显减弱。我们认为：在人口红利消失的约束下不宜过分高估城镇化对经济增长的拉动作用，在经济新常态背景下应从智慧城市、节能环保、公共服务等方面重点提升城镇化发展的质量。
英文摘要：
We use factor analytic approaches to measure the historical trends of China＇ s urbanization development level over the 1996--2013 period, and set up an TVP-VAR Model to study the time-varying characteristics of the influence of urban- ization development on growth rate and quality of economy. The results show that the development level of China＇ s urbanization tends to rise consistently, and resources and environment refrain the development of urbanization continuously; and that it has positive effects on the increase in growth rate and quality of economy in the long term, but such effects seem to decrease after 2005, especially at the time of new economic normality. We hold that： it is improper to overvalue the pulling effects of urbaniza- tion on economic growth when demographic dividend diminishes, and that it is critical to promote the quality of urbanization de- velopment in many areas in new economic normality, such as smart city, energy saving and environment protection, and public services etc.
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