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数值天气预报和气候预测可预报性研究的若干动力学方法
  • ISSN号:1006-9585
  • 期刊名称:气候与环境研究
  • 时间:2013.7.1
  • 页码:524-538
  • 分类:P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]
  • 作者机构:School of Atmospheric Science,Chengdu University of Information Technology, Hunan Meteorological Observatory, Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms,Institute of Atmospheric Physics of CAS
  • 相关基金:National Natural Science Foundation of China(41105038);National Science and Technology Support Program(2012BAC22B03)
  • 相关项目:条件非线性最优扰动方法在台风异常路径可预报性研究中的应用
中文摘要:

The interaction between the typhoons Fengshen and Fung-wong over the Western Pacific in 2002 is studied with the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation(CNOP) method.The study discovered that the CNOP method reveals the process of one-way interaction between Fengshen and Fung-wong.Moreover,if the region of Fung-wong was selected for verification,the sensitivity area was mainly located in the region of Fengshen and presented a half-ring structure;if the region of Fengshen was selected for verification,most of the sensitivity areas were located in the region between the Fengshen and the subtropical high,far away from Fung-wong.This indicated that Fung-wong is mainly steered by Fengshen,but Fengshen is mainly affected by the subtropical high.The sensitivity experiment showed that the initial errors in the CNOP-identified sensitive areas have larger impacts on the verification-area prediction than those near the typhoon center and their developments take a large proportion in the whole domain.This suggests that the CNOP-identified sensitive areas do have large influence on the verification-area prediction.

英文摘要:

The interaction between the typhoons Fengshen and Fung-wong over the Western Pacific in 2002 is studied with the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation(CNOP) method.The study discovered that the CNOP method reveals the process of one-way interaction between Fengshen and Fung-wong.Moreover,if the region of Fung-wong was selected for verification,the sensitivity area was mainly located in the region of Fengshen and presented a half-ring structure;if the region of Fengshen was selected for verification,most of the sensitivity areas were located in the region between the Fengshen and the subtropical high,far away from Fung-wong.This indicated that Fung-wong is mainly steered by Fengshen,but Fengshen is mainly affected by the subtropical high.The sensitivity experiment showed that the initial errors in the CNOP-identified sensitive areas have larger impacts on the verification-area prediction than those near the typhoon center and their developments take a large proportion in the whole domain.This suggests that the CNOP-identified sensitive areas do have large influence on the verification-area prediction.

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期刊信息
  • 《气候与环境研究》
  • 中国科技核心期刊
  • 主管单位:中国科学院
  • 主办单位:中国科学院大气物理研究所
  • 主编:李崇银
  • 地址:北京9804信箱
  • 邮编:100029
  • 邮箱:qhhj@mail.iap.ac.cn
  • 电话:010-82995048/9 82995049
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1006-9585
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:11-3693/P
  • 邮发代号:
  • 获奖情况:
  • 中国科技论文统计分析数据库源期刊
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  • 被引量:11824