中文摘要：

采用FOSM,PEM和FORM等方法计算边坡可靠度时,随机参数空间中的极限状态面是对于某一固定滑面而言的,这种处理方式低估了滑动面不确定所带来的风险。为解决这一问题,提出参数空间中的系统极限状态面概念,将系统可靠度与与固定滑面可靠度做了区分。以边坡全局安全系数求解为基础,建立一种新的边坡系统可靠度的计算方法,采用Monte-Carlo模拟方法生成一组随机参数,利用Excel编程实现安全系数的快速计算,对计算结果进行统计分析,获得边坡系统可靠度。以简单均质边坡为例说明该方法的实现过程,并将计算结果与GEO-SLOPE中基于固定滑面的概率分析结果进行对比,说明该方法能够从理论上更为合理地评估滑动面不确定所导致的边坡系统风险,计算效率也显著高于常规Monte-Carlo法模拟计算系统可靠度的效率。

英文摘要：

A fixed slip surface is needed when FOSM、PEM and FORM are used to calculate the reliability index of slopes. This process may lead to underestimate of the system risk of slopes. To solve this problem,a system limit state surface in strength parameter space is defined to illustrate the new system reliability analysis approach. This new approach is to approximate the system limit state surface based on the global minimum safety factor searching process. Then the safety factors of the simulation strength parameters can be calculated by Excel. The system reliability index can be obtained by statistical analysis of the simulated safety factors. A case study is taken to illustrate the approach. The results show that the new approach can evaluate the system risk adequately and efficiently.