欢迎您！东篱公司
退出
-
申报数据库
-
立项数据库
-
成果数据库
-
项目获奖数据库
中文摘要：
短期风速预测对并网风力发电系统的运行有重要意义。该文简述了短期风速预测的价值和方法，分析了小时风速的日变化特点。在此基础上，提出将单变量小时风速时间序列向量化，以消除日周期非平稳，进而建立了向量自回归（vector autoregression，VAR）模型，并用于小时风速预测。算例表明，正常天气条件下，该模型可以预测提前72h的短期风速。该文提出的方法和模型具有一定的普适性，可用于其它领域的时间序列建模与预测。
英文摘要：
Short-term wind speed forecasting is important to the operation of grid-connected wind power generation systems. This paper outlined the value and methods of short-term wind speed forecasting. The characteristic of diurnal hourly wind speed variation has been thoroughly analyzed. A method named as vectorization of univariate hourly wind speed time series has been presented for eliminating diurnal nonstationary, and vectorized hourly wind speed was expressed as a vector autoregression （VAR） model. Finally, the VAR model was applied to forecast hourly wind speed. The results showed that the presented VAR model can yield satisfactory hourly wind speed forecast as long as 72 h ahead under normal weather conditions. The proposed method is suitable for eliminating the periodic nonstationary, and can be used in other time series modeling and forecasting.
同期刊论文项目
同项目期刊论文
Environmental/economic power dispatch problem using multi-objective differential evolution algorithm
Intelligent Foreign Particle Inspection Machine for Injection Liquid Examination Based on Modified P
Existence and exponential stability of almost periodic solution for shunting inhibitory cellular neu
期刊信息
位置：