中文摘要：

以京港澳高速公路湖北省内金山至武汉南路段的交通流检测器,以及交通流检测器附近设置于路侧的公路气象站历史数据为对象,考虑降雨天气因素,分析有无降雨和不同降雨强度对车辆速度均值及速度离散分布的影响;考虑不同降雨天气条件及不同车道位置、不同车辆类型、不同时间段的车速行驶速度的差异性;基于Greenshield经典交通流V-K关系,采用非线性回归方法,建立了因素对速度影响的雨天车辆行驶速度综合预测模型,拟合度达到80%.该成果对于研究降雨因素对行车安全影响,分析降雨条件下通行能力,制定降雨条件下可变速度控制等交通控制措施具有参考意义.

英文摘要：

Adverse weather conditions such as rain,snow and fog have significant impacts on highway traffic operation and safety. This paper emphasized rain effects on characteristics of vehicle speed,based on the traffic and road weather data of detectors positioned on the segment between Jinshan and Wuhannan interchange of Jinggangao（ G4） expressway in Hubei province. Focusing on the rain weather element,this paper analyzed the effects of rain on the mean speed and speed variation by rain or non-rain weather or under different rain intensities; speed characteristics were deeply explored considering different factors of traffic lane,vehicle types and time hour,utilizing detailed traffic data containing traffic lane and vehicle type information. The comprehensive speed prediction model under rain weather condition considering several factors was also built based on the classic traffic flow theory of V-K relation by Greenshield,and the goodness-of-fit of the speed prediction model reaches 80% approximately. The research results can be useful or as a reference to the analysis of rain on traffic safety and operation,traffic capacity analysis under or decision-making of traffic control measures such as variable speed limit under adverse road weather conditions.