采用水文变异诊断系统对马口站、三水站、西北江的年径流量和年输沙量序列,三水站的分流比和分沙比序列分别进行变异分析。诊断发现马口站和西北江年径流量序列未发现明显变异,其它序列均呈现显著的跳跃变异,变异时间多在1992年前后,破坏了水文序列的一致性。物理成因分析表明频繁的人类活动是导致水沙序列变异的主要原因。根据变化环境下非一致性序列的水文频率计算原理,计算了三水站1992年变异前后年径流量和年输沙量的水文频率分布,并比较了均值和不同频率特征值之间的差异,该结果对于西北江三角洲的航道整治和防洪决策等具有一定的参考价值。
The regularity of natural hydrologic series is essential to hydrographic computation and engineering projects.But recently it was greatly affected by frequent human activities and climate change,thus it has become inconsistent.In order to reveal the regularity of hydrological and sediment series in the North River and West River Delta(NWD) of the Pearl River,the variation analysis and frequency calculation were conducted.Firstly,the hydrologic variation diagnosis system(HVDS) was used to analyze the variation of the following series respectively: the annual runoff and annual sediment load series at Makou station,Sanshui station and NWD,the diversion ratio series of water and that of sediment load at Sanshui station.The results show that: except the annual runoff series at Makou station and NWD,all the other series were significantly inconsistent;and the change-points of all series at Sanshui station were in the year of 1992,the sediment load series at Makou station was in 1994,and the sediment load series in NWD was in 1997.Thus,the hydrological and sediment series were inconsistent.The main cause of these variations was frequent human activities.Secondly,the frequency distributions of annual runoff and sediment load series before and after the change-point of the year 1992 at Sanshui station were conducted based on the hydrological frequency calculation theory for inconsistent series(HFCT).Then,the differences of means and various frequency characteristic values were analyzed.The results are valuable for waterway regulation and flood control policy-decision in the NWD.