中文摘要：

基于2010年7～8月对豫南某市8乡398个农户的调查,采用计量经济模型从农户风险认知角度对其土地流转意愿进行了分析。研究将农户通常会遇到的风险归纳成自然风险、市场风险和能力风险三类。结果表明：粮食价格变动、家人生病、非农就业能力、信贷获取能力风险的认知显著影响流出意愿;化肥农药价格变动、土地退化和家人生病、非农就业能力和信贷获取能力风险的认知显著影响流入意愿。研究对造成这些差异影响的原因进行了解释,并在此基础上得出了相关的结论与政策建议。

英文摘要：

Based on a survey of 398 farmers in 8 townships of a city in South Henan Province during July to August 2010, this paper employs an econometric model to analyze the farmers＇ willingness of land transfer from the point of their risk perception. Three kinds of risks encountered by farmers are distinguished, namely the natural risk,market risk and the capacity risk. Main results show that changes in farmers＇ risk perception on food prices, illness of family members, farmers＇ non-farm employment capacity, and farmers＇ access to credit ability significant- ly affect outflow wishes~ while changes in the prices of fertilizers and pesticides, land degradation and illness of family members, farmers＇ non-farm employment capacity and farmers＇ access to credit ability risk have significant effects on inflows wishes. Reasons causing the differences in the influence direction and extent are explained. Final- ly,the paper concludes the study and proposes several recommendations accordingly based on the main ro~ltlt~