中文摘要：

应用可变下渗能力模型VIC（variable infiltration capacity）与区域气候变化影响模式PRECIS（providing regional climate for Impacts studies）耦合,对气候变化情景下的太湖流域径流变化趋势进行预测.结果表明：未来时期（2021—2050年）太湖流域径流对气候变化的响应较明显,A2和B2情景下径流较基准期（1961—1990年）都增加,尤其是在汛期径流增加显著,并且径流深的时空变化特征与降水的变化特征具有较好的一致性,预示太湖流域未来发生洪水的可能性将增大,将增加未来防洪工作的难度和强度.

英文摘要：

Impact of climate change on runoff in the Taihu basin is assessed by using VIC （Variable Infiltration Capacity） model coupled with PRECIS （Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies） in this study. Results show that the mean annual runoff under different future climate scenarios will increase, especially that during flood seasons, which is consistent with the change of precipitation for both spatial and temporal distribution. It implies that there may be a great increase in the intensity of floods in the future, which will be a big challenge for flood control in the Taihu basin in the future.